ABSTRACT
This research was conducted to investigate the best trend model and to forecast the number of tourist visits to Indonesia. The data used in this research is secondary data related to the number of tourists visiting Indonesia from January 2017 to July 2019. Forecasting tourism demand, such as tourist visit numbers, was carried out by statistical methods. The statistical method used in this research is the trend model, such as the linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, and cubic trends. It was found that the lowest MSE value is the MSE value of the logarithmic trend of 1.252e10. Hence, the best model to use to forecast the number of tourist visits is the logarithmic trend with Yt = 1018383.999 + 79795.923 in (t). The average forecast number of tourists visiting Indonesia in 2020 is projected to reach 1,317,314.
