ABSTRACT
The San Diego-Tijuana Earthquake Planning Scenario Project is an update of the 1990 Earthquake Scenario developed for the San Diego (United States)-Tijuana (Mexico) Region. The project is led by the EERI (Earthquake Engineering Research Institute) San Diego Chapter and includes the participation of about 100 contributors and stakeholders including organizations and individuals from both sides of the border. The San Diego-Tijuana region includes over five million residents, making it the largest bi-national conurbation shared between USA and Mexico, the second-largest shared between USA and another country, and the fourth largest in the world. Over 50 million people cross the border each year between Tijuana and San Diego, giving the region the busiest land-border crossing in the world. The scenario earthquake is based on a mag- nitude 6.9 strike slip earthquake on the Rose Canyon fault; the main seismic source of the region. The scenario earthquake would produce up to 2 m of strike slip surface fault rupture. The USGS developed ShakeMaps including spectral accelerations and other intensity measures. With the ground motions defined for the region, groundwater depth and liquefaction susceptibility zones were created for use in Hazus software-based loss estimates. Onshore and offshore scenario earthquake-induced potential landslides were also studied, and special attention was paid to a possible offshore Coronado Canyon submarine landslide capable of producing a tsunami affecting San Diego Bay and the international border area. This paper discusses the methodologies used in assessing these hazards and presents the results which are being applied in the scenario earthquake study.
