ABSTRACT
Global change presents unprecedented challenges to researchers. The global scale and diversity of scientific and policy questions pose daunting methodological and organizational problems. The world of possible global change is very uncertain. In this regard, it is useful to categorize research into two types: technology- and policy-development research, which aims to increase expected social welfare, given probabilities of uncertain events; and uncertainty-reduction. The potential consequences of either action or inaction on the policy front raise the stakes to unprecedented levels. How are agricultural researchers to respond to unprecedented challenges? The chapter addresses this question by first reviewing some lessons from past agricultural research, and then presenting a simple framework for ex ante assessment of research priorities. There is a wealth of knowledge in economics and agricultural economics about research-and-development processes, induced innovation, technology adoption, and impacts of technological change on productivity.
