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Do Storks Bring Babies?
DOI link for Do Storks Bring Babies?
Do Storks Bring Babies? book
Do Storks Bring Babies?
DOI link for Do Storks Bring Babies?
Do Storks Bring Babies? book
ABSTRACT
Karl Pearson described spurious correlation in 1897. If the values of three variables, x, y, and z, are selected randomly from a distribution, then on average we expect no correlation of x with y, x with z, or y with z. But if we divide the values of both x and y by z, the ratios x/z and y/z will be correlated. Pearson called this a “spurious” relationship. Since incidence rates are event counts divided by person-time, might spurious correlation arise if independent variables are used that are also divided by person-time? Jerzy Neyman discussed this topic in 1947, using hypothetical data suggesting that storks bring babies. Questions about Neyman’s example are raised to motivate readers.