ABSTRACT

This paper discusses decision method based on theory of evidence, it analyses the problem of the existing decision method, and puts forward analyzing the focal element of basic probability number by gradual refinement method, in order to solve basic probability number which forms state factor of focal element. This method establishes contacts between the solution of basic probability number which forms state factor of focal element and the process of expert’s colony decision, It makes decision method based on theory of evidence more scientific and more rational.