ABSTRACT
The elements and approaches needed to perform a Quantitative Methods for Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) span from microbial counts obtained on foods by enumeration methods to predictive tools applying mathematical models to understand the relationship between the occurrence of pathogens in a food matrix and their public health risk. In addition, predictive microbial models can be incorporated into a QMRA model within the exposure assessment step, helping to determine microbial dynamics and elucidate prevalence and concentration at each step along the food chain. Predictive models can be used to predict the impact of a specific food technology process by defining model variables through probability distributions or point-estimate values. The level focuses on those food phenomena identified as relevant in the previous level, considering quantitative variables to define the process and applying predictive models to reflect the effect of each food stage along the food production-distribution-consumption chain.
