ABSTRACT
The area of predictive microbiology makes use of a number of mathematical models to describe the behaviour of bacterial populations in these steps. Predictive microbiology models are of great importance for quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRA), as QMRA should explicitly consider the dynamics of microbiological growth, survival and death in foods. Predictive microbial models can help to understand the microbial behaviour in food systems depending on environmental conditions, being a powerful tool to evaluate the microbial exposure in the exposure assessments step within a QMRA. The application of predictive models in exposure assessments is always straightforward, especially for QMRA aiming to evaluate the status of public health concerning a specific hazard and/or food product. Although microbial transference phenomena have always been understood as an important cause of food contamination, together with the pronounced need to incorporate them into risk assessment studies, transfer models have only in recent years been implemented in predictive microbiology.
