ABSTRACT
This review considers how epidemiological models are constructed, how they deal with real-life complexities such as spatial heterogeneity, how they can be applied to specific FMD outbreaks or epidemics, and how they can be used to explore the impact of control measures. A detailed description is provided of the application of a particular model, the ‘Keeling’ model, of the spread of FMD between farms in the UK during the 2001 epidemic. The review concludes with a brief discussion of how mathematical modelling of livestock disease is likely to develop in the future. The emphasis throughout is on ‘good practice’, especially how theoretical models relate to biological data and how models can sensibly be used to inform decisions about disease control strategies.
