ABSTRACT
This study investigated the uncertainty of the fail strain of some aging deteriorated rubber bearings and its impact to structural seismic performance. The loading tests for rubber bearings with aging deterioration found their deformation may be lower than the designed ultimate strain but with large uncertainty. It is urgent to evaluate the residual seismic safety of the structural with careful consideration of the uncertainty of the deformation ability. However, it is difficult to estimate the probability distribution of the ultimate strain of the bearings due to very limited data. This study performed Bayesian Probability Estimation using the 4 test results and 112 reference test result of some new bearings to estimate the deformation ability’s variation of the bearings. Incremental Dynamic Analysis were also conducted to evaluate the seismic performance of deteriorated structure with random ultimate strain of bearings due to the estimation.
