ABSTRACT
The performance of an aging bridge is commonly evaluated under the framework of reliability analysis, where the uncertainties associated with the structural resistance and loads are incorporated. The probability distribution of resistance deterioration is often difficult to identify due to the limit of available data. Rather, the low order moments such as the mean value and standard deviation can be obtained by either fitting or empirical judgments. In such cases, a probability-bounding approach can be utilized to model the imprecise probabilistic information of resistance deterioration, i.e., considering the bounds of the (unknown) distribution function rather than postulating a single, precisely specified distribution function. Consequently, one can estimate the bounds of bridge reliability instead of a point estimate. In this paper, a new approach is proposed to evaluate the bridge reliability under incomplete deterioration information. The method computes the tight bounds of structural reliability by employing a linear programming based algorithm. The reliability for an illustrative bridge is computed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method.
