ABSTRACT

Models of infectious disease are systems that describe the dynamics of a communicable disease and its spread. They mimic the course of infection by incorporating and interrelating the key elements of the particular system. Models are necessarily simplifications of the real world and much of their utility comes from their ability to simulate it with far less than a complete knowledge. In the context of quantitative models of arbovirus infection, perhaps the greatest impetus to their creation is the need to study the effects of various control strategies such as sanitation, vaccination, and vector control. There are relatively few published works of any type on quantitative models describing the dynamics of arbovirus infection. With the computer, extremely powerful statistical techniques are available that have rarely been applied to the task of relating large quantities of data on the many independent variables known to influence mosquito abundance, activity, or arbovirus transmission.