ABSTRACT
The forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) depends upon the accuracy of the initial conditions(ICs). If the the IC of the model is known, the mathematical models of the earth’s atmosphere system can be developed to predict the future weather conditions. The main objective of this chapter is to improve the forecasting performance of the high-resolution mesoscale model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) with modified initial conditions by inserting the conventional and non-conventional observations through 3DVAR analysis technique. For this purpose, a heavy rainfall event (August 9–12, 2016) associated with the MD, formed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), is considered. The WRF and 3DVAR modeling systems are briefly described and the synoptic conditions associated with the heavy rainfall event are presented. The chapter then presents the numerical experiments performed in this study. Finally, it provides the results and discussion, and this is followed by the overall conclusions.
