ABSTRACT
Forecast evaluation can be described as "the process and practice of determining the quality and value of forecasts." As such, it consists of a body of concepts and procedures for comparing forecasts and observations and for assessing the value or utility of forecasts to users. The practice of evaluating weather forecasts is almost as old as routine weather forecasting itself, with the first papers and reports on evaluation methodology and on the results of evaluation studies appearing nearly a century ago. Moreover, the history and development of forecast evaluation in meteorology have been marked by several colorful incidents and by considerable controversy. Unfortunately, a comprehensive review of the literature on the evaluation of weather forecasts is clearly beyond the scope of this chapter. The reader is referred to publications by Muller (1944), Bleeker (1946), Brier and Allen (1951), Gringorten (1951), Johnson (1957), Meglis (1960), Murphy and Allen (1970), Dobryshman (1972), National Center for Atmospheric Research (1976), World Meteorological Organization (1980), and Daan (1984) for reviews, collections of papers, and bibliographies concerning various aspects of this topic.
