ABSTRACT

Statistical weather forecasting, in its broadest sense, has undoubtedly been practiced for thousands of years. All that is necessary is for someone to collect some data, someone to process it, and someone to use the results to make a forecast. Ancient man, seeing a dark cloud approaching and thinking that rain was likely, would be practicing statistical weather forecasting even if he had no knowledge of the physical processes involved. However, in this chapter we use the term statistical weather forecasting to mean forecasting through the use of a formal statistical analysis of the data, with the results of that analysis being clearly stated.