ABSTRACT
13Animal products in various forms of meat, eggs and milk products supply about one-sixth of the calories and one-third of the protein in per capita human food supplies in the world. When income increases, people change their diets to increase consumption of animal products.
High consumption of animal products is established in developed countries. With rising per capita incomes, however, demand for these commodities in Third World countries will rise faster than in developed countries. This trend has major implications for livestock and grain production.
The analysis presented in this chapter covers 104 developing countries. Twenty-one are in Asia, 19 in North Africa/Middle East, 40 in Sub-Saharan Africa and 24 in Latin America. The author presents an overview of the supply-demand balances for meat and projections to 1990 and 2000.
It is clear, using either strong or weak economic growth assumptions, that there will be major shortfalls in supplies of animal products relative to demand in these countries.
The output of meat from the early 1960's (1961-65) to the mid-1970's (1973-77) increased in these countries at an average annual rate of 2.9 percent, faster than the corresponding population increase of 2.6 percent. Rising per capita income, however, stimulated meat consumption to rise faster, at 3.2 per cent annually.
Net meat exports from these countries consequently declined from 760,000 tons to 304,000 tons over the same period. Developing countries became net importers of meat by the end of the 1970's. If past economic growth rates continue, the aggregate projected demand for meat is expected to outstrip projected supply by about 8 million tons by 1990 and by 21 million tons by 2000.
World production of meat in 1981 totaled 140 million tons. The 104 countries studied here, which account for half of the world's population, produced less than one-fifth of the total meat output.
Assuming continuation of historical trends, Third World countries are expected to produce 36 million tons of meat by 1990. Fifty percent of the increase over the 1977 level would be in Latin America and about 20 percent in Asia.
The total requirement of meat in these countries in 1990, however, is projected by 44 million tons, 8 million tons more than projected production. Forty-three percent of the projected increase of 20.6 million tons in consumption between 1977 and 1990 would be from population increases, with the balance attributable to increasing per capita income.
If the projected demand for meat in the developing countries can be met, it
14could total 72 million tons, or an average annual per capita consumption of 20 kilograms by the year 2000. Meat production in Third World countries, however, is projected at 51 millions tons in 2000, leaving a gap of 21 million tons.
Unless this gap is bridged through accelerated production growth or largescale transfer from the developed countries, the relative prices of meat in the Third World will rise. This would cause considerable hardship to poor consumers, especially in countries where meat constitutes a significant portion of food intake.
Of the projected supply-demand gap of 21 million tons of meat by 2000, North Africa/Middle East and Asia together would share nearly two-thirds. The projected deficit in Latin America would be relatively small—2.7 million tons; Sub-Saharan Africa would have a shortfall of 4.7 million tons. East and Southeast Asia and Western Asia would have large gaps of about 5 million tons each, and deficits in South Asia and Northern Africa would be about 1.8 million tons each. The gap in Upper South America would be 3.6 million tons.
These are the areas where meat supplies need to be augmented. The projected demand has major implications for government policy, grain production, animal husbandry, food processing technology, and international trade.
Parallel large supply-demand gaps could occur in feed grains if past trends in production and per capita income also continue to 2000.
Policies and technologies for achieving the needed increases in meat supply are examined by other chapters in this volume.
