ABSTRACT
Increasing future uncertainty caused by climate change and socio-economic developments brings challenges for decision makers to plan long-lived infrastructures such as large dams. To deal with these uncertainties, decision-makers need to formulate for-ward-looking decisions to ensure reliable future performances of the infrastructures. This study aims to analyse the extent of “forward-lookingness” of three dam investment deci-sions (Gondang, Logung, and Raknamo) in Indonesia and identify what drivers and barri-ers turn decisions into forward-looking decisions or away from them. With the application of ‘forward-looking decisions’ framework and analysis of decisions documents, it is re-vealed that the three decisions about Gondang, Logung, and Raknamo dam have a similar extent of “forward-lookingness”; problem definition of the decisions were not forward looking; however, solution and justification of the decisions were forward-looking. Fur-thermore, sensitizing concepts and Constant Comparative Method are used to identify drivers and barriers that can make investment decisions less or more forward looking. From the analysis of 17 semi-structured interviews conducted with government officials within the Ministry of Public Works, Indonesia, it is concluded that several drivers and barriers exist. These findings provide new insights into existing literature on how these drivers and barriers may support or hinder organisations to make forward-looking deci-sions.
