ABSTRACT
The aim of this investigation is to propose an economical approach to take the most optimal investment decision in heavy oil fields, taking into account key variables such as exchange rate, oil benchmarks spread, technology, discount rate, capital and operating costs, taxes and environmental expenses. The method for this research is based on economical, mathematical and statistical methodologies, as well as sensitivity analyzes. As any investment analysis consists in forecasting costs and revenues within an intertemporal framework, this document’s subject assess to develop an empirical methodology which could develop a better system for increasing companies’ revenues when producing heavy oil restricted to the product and market conditions. Analysis showed that exchange rate and oil benchmarks fluctuations are not a considerable threat for the model, due to the fact that there is low volatility in the spread among WTI and Brent oil benchmarks, as well as Canadian and US Dollars. On the other hand, increases in technology ratios applied to production highly affect total income and revenues, meaning that the future of economic investments in non-conventional oil is highly related to technological advances.
