ABSTRACT
Predictive microbiology applied to food is an area related to the quantitative ecology of microbes in food. Taking into consideration the microbial response to intrinsic and extrinsic factors, such as water activity, pH, storage temperature, or the presence of natural antimicrobials, it is possible to develop mathematical models to describe microbial growth in foods. The important factors that need to be considered in predictive microbiology, in contrast to fermentation kinetics, is the low numbers of microbial cells in foods, the nonoptimal conditions for microbial growth, and the physiological stage of deteriorative or pathogenic microorganisms of the initial load. As such, microbial models differ from those used in fermentation, and the primary goal is to determine the best processing or storage conditions to inhibit or eliminate microbial growth in foods. The use of microbial modeling to predict the efficiency of natural antimicrobials added to foods is discussed in this chapter, using spices or their essential oils as examples.
