ABSTRACT
Contacts between container ships and banks or docks in ports pose a great threaten to human life, environment and economy. This paper proposes a method to estimate the probability of ship contacting bank. Big data analysis of ship routes and speeds through the Automatic Identification System and meteorological data considering season wind variation are given to obtain realistic input data for the simulation: the probability distribution of wind, ship routes and ship speeds. At the basis of Maneuvering Modeling Group for manoeuvring motion simulation, the identification of contact is carried out in the channel of Yangshan deepwater port. The Monte Carlo simulation method is applied to obtain a meaningful prediction of the relevant factors of the contact accidents. The proposed approach is demonstrated through the probabilistic analysis for a 10000TEU container ship with different container stacking configurations. The ship speed and stacking strategies in critical meteorological conditions are proposed to avoid the contact events.
