ABSTRACT
Seismic Life Cycle Cost Analysis (S-LCCA) may emerge as a critical decision-making tool for lifetime investment planning of structure and infrastructure systems, especially when located in moderate to high seismic zones. The state-of-the-art methodology of S-LCCA incorporates three essential components, namely, seismic fragility curves, seismic hazard occurrence model and repair cost estimates. However, as a consequence of different sources of uncertainty prevailing in each component, estimation of S-LCCA may vary substantially. This study aims to quantify and propagate uncertainties stemming from seismic fragility assessment and hazard occurrence model using a representative case-study example of four-story modern ductile reinforced concrete (RC) building in Los Angeles, USA. A Monte Carlo simulation based approach is adopted to span over the uncertainties stemming from seismic hazard and building vulnerability followed by fitting of standard probability distributions for easy adoption by stakeholders and decision makers. Results reveal the criticality of incorporating uncertainties stemming from the input sources as opposed to lifetime loss assessments using deterministic estimates.
