ABSTRACT
This paper proposes a procedure for collision-risk-based preliminary ship design. The procedure is a synthesis of a probabilistic ship-ship collision damage model, common ship design software, and several analytical parametric models. The procedure is implemented in a parametric way such that by systematically varying the parameters related to the conceptual design of the ship, e.g., the main particulars and the inner tank arrangement, the performances of large amount of design variants can be evaluated. Risk is treated as a design objective, alongside other conventional ship design merits, as opposed to a design constraint. Thus trade-offs among different objectives become explicit and can be evaluated quantitatively across the design space to achieve an optimum at an early design phase. The application of the established procedure is discussed through two case studies, one with the preliminary design of a Suezmax oil tanker, and the other one with that of a container ship. The risks of oil spill and in-hold container damage are quantified for the two ship types respectively. By using the utility function technique with several sets of predefined weighing factors, favored designs under different settings can be identified. The procedure can facilitate decision making when specific design requirements and operational profile are given.
