ABSTRACT
A quantitative evaluation of the effects of uncertainty surrounding the development of the next generation of factory stern trawlers is suggested as progression of state-of-the-art ship design practice. To better understand and take into consideration the uncertainties related to the technical, operational and commercial aspects influencing the solution space definition of a factory stern trawler is paramount. This paper discusses such a challenge and reviews ways in which current ship design practice and vessel design solutions developed thereof, can be improved and implemented in novel ship design approaches. The fifth generation of factory stern trawlers—focusing on improving energy efficiency and food product quality—is currently under development, drenched in a deluge of uncertainty. With an aged fleet with little renovation and renewal since the early 90 s, the need for greener and more commercially effective vessels has spurred a fleet renewal market trend. The evolution of technologies and their future benefits, new regulations regarding fishing quotas, fish quality or fish processing, or the future availability of fish among others, have demonstrated, historically, to play an important role on fishing vessel performance. We, therefore, propose new methods of quantification of their effects to improve the performance of the vessel design of the next generation stern trawler.
The research behind this paper is based on a methodology of structured Accelerated Business Development (ABD) workshops identifying uncertainty factors, which are contrasted with those found in state-of-the-art literature. A MATLAB-based simulation model to quantify their effects on the economic performance of the vessel is developed and reviewed in this paper. This model is presented and discussed. The paper argues that a better understanding of the effects of uncertainty factors in the design and operation of factory trawlers, and all other vessel types, for that matter, should support more effective decisions and a better vessel design work process. The paper presents, therefore, a tool to support decision-making under uncertainty during both, the conceptual design phase and in the operational phase of the vessel.
