ABSTRACT
Systems engineering risk assessment and mitigation can be improved using a knowledge-based approach in conjunction with cost estimation. This method is demonstrated and automated in a web-based expert system tool called Expert COSYSMO. It is an extension of the COSYSMO cost model which supports project planning by identifying, categorizing, quantifying, and prioritizing system-level risks; and project execution by providing heuristic risk mitigation advice. The knowledge base codifies the experience of seasoned systems engineering practitioners to identify and quantify risks, and provide risk mitigation advice for users to help develop their project-specific mitigation plans.
This collective expertise of systems engineers is captured in an automated public tool on the Internet that simultaneously estimates labor cost and assesses risk using a standard risk taxonomy. It leverages the commonality of risks given combinations of project characteristics and identifies the interactions between different types of risks.
During the estimation process it helps decision-makers flag risks for further analysis and mitigation, and supplements further by providing associated risk control advice. Practitioners can use this additional information extracted from cost models to improve risk planning early in the life cycle. Users could update the rule base for local conditions and have the opportunity to integrate it into a more comprehensive risk management framework.
