ABSTRACT
This chapter forecasts the likely market penetration rates for adoption of driverless vehicles (DVs) in US urban areas. We rely upon multiple sources. We review the speed of technology adoption rate of horses to cars, land lines to smartphones, film cameras to digital ones/smartphones, sticks and bricks retail to online shopping (in progress), and state legalization of marijuana from Chapter 6; consider the views of DV “nay-sayers” from Chapter 7; and the weak evidence for lack of early harbingers of adoption from Chapter 8. We also review 38 available practitioner forecasts from 18 different sources on DV adoption. We synthesize the information to provide our own forecasts in low, medium, and high adoption scenarios for utilization of eight different transportation modes (of which three are DV-related) for five-year time segments from 2020 through 2050. The medium scenario forecasts that DV fleet (excluding privately owned DVs) adoption in US urban areas would reach 10% by 2025, and 30% by 2035, growing to 48% by 2050.
