ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 disease that originated from SARS-CoV-2 virus has been spreading exponentially among the most populated countries. In India, the spread of the virus and the number of people infected are increasing each and every day. In this scenario, administration has incurred lock-down procedures to break the chain of virus spread. This measure reduces the chances of infection as the person in good health is less likely to come into contact with infected persons. Society, however, cannot afford the lock-down process for an undetermined period of time because economic and social activities are also halted. In this situation, the spreading behaviours of virus in different communities is essential information to the administration. The best procedure to acquire information is to analyze different forecasting models for the epidemic that provide predictions of infected and recovered cases from this viral disease. In this chapter, the spreading behaviour of the COVID-19 epidemic is analysed by means of comparing the ARIMA prediction model for infected and recovered cases. The epidemic models are tested over the data reported by the health ministry of different states in India. The study of this chapter is performed across Delhi, West Bengal, Tamilnadu, and Maharashtra. The statistical analysis based model selection process proves the efficacy of the selected model.
