ABSTRACT
The model predicts the probability density function of the heat loss distribution over a specified period of time on the basis of the design parameters of the house, temperature characteristics of the site as well as the air change rate due to mechanical or natural ventilation. The probabilistic distribution of the latter is estimated in the infiltration model. Reliability of energy performance of building envelope components exposed to various environmental and climatic conditions is analyzed, and the probability of malfunction is quantified. Malfunction occurs in the form of excessive energy loss resulting from the climate related characteristics of the envelope (U-value, leakage characteristics) and the internal load (installations, etc.). Different design options concerning also the effect of air infiltration on the variations of thermal transmittance of the envelope (dynamic U-value) are analyzed in the context of probability of excessive heat loss characterizing energy performance of the envelope. Various ventilation strategies are considered.
