ABSTRACT
The geotechnical properties of soil and rock masses are inherently variable. This can be accounted for in stability problems by a stochastic formulation of the visco-plastic finite element method (SVPFEM). Local yield and stress redistribution in the SVPFEM can be modelled as a success runs Markov process. The probability of global failure of the system can also be obtained using Markov process modelling. The SVPFEM incorporating Markov process modelling has been applied to a stability analysis of coal mine spoil piles. The analysis shows that Ditlevsen bounds can give satisfactory estimates of the probability of global failure.
