ABSTRACT
This chapter presents the "state-of-the-practice" in the analytical methods used in forecasting ridership. It defines the nature and context of present day high-speed rail (HSR) ridership modelling and reviews the two-stage modeling system adopted in the most recent major studies of proposed HSR services. The chapter then summarizes the overall strengths and weaknesses in the areas of data acquisition, disaggregate choice modeling, and forecasting methods. It also suggests some areas of theoretical advances as holding some potential for improving the quality and reliability of HSR ridership studies. It is important to recognize that the HSR ridership studies are performed in different institutional environments and for different types of clients. The studies have usually been performed by transportation engineering or econometric consulting firms. All the HSR study efforts face a limited set of existing data. The existing data typically comes from sources such as: regional or state demographic studies, state highway counts, and the Federal Aviation Administration 10% ticket sample.
