ABSTRACT
Rise in sea level followed by increased salinization and changing pattern of rainfall or frequent storms has degraded the health of some species or resulted in complete loss of mangrove forest cover in the Sundarbans. A bio-physical vulnerability assessment of mangroves was carried out in Indian Sundarbans with response to climatic change in the Northern part of Bay of Bengal. By implementing the definition of vulnerability laid down in IPCC AR IV framework, the three dimensions of vulnerability, i.e. exposure to stresses, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and their components were measured at various islands to form a spatial vulnerability model based on ranking. The island wise ranking revealed the impacts of rising sea level associated with low rate of sediment accretion led to high vulnerability and mangrove habitat loss in sea facing islands like Jambudwip, Bhangaduani north, Gosaba south Bulcherry, Baikunthakhal and Chotahaldi. The islands like Duania, Chulkathi, Saznekhali, Hingalganj, Ajmalmari, Dhulibasani, and Nethidopani are ranked as least vulnerable owing to high rate of accretion, gentle intertidal slopes, low salinity, and high precipitation. The study prompts to the fact that the areas, more acquiescent to sediment supply, tidal regimes and species diversity are most ideal for any management option to carry out.
