ABSTRACT

This study aims to conduct forecasting using the graph method and multiple regression modeling, assisted by statistical software. This study uses data from 5 of 7 developing market economies, except for Russia and Mexico. The author considers that each of the 5 emerging markets is closely integrated with other countries, especially with other emerging market countries. By capitalizing on market size and integration between countries, the authors empirically estimate spillover effects through this study using the forecasting graph model to provide additional input and information relating to monetary macroeconomics in emerging countries. The variables used in this study include the money supply, the inflation rate, the composite stock price index, and the interest rate and expected return in the 5 emerging market countries.