ABSTRACT
China has entered an important stage of sustained growth in consumption demand, accelerated upgrading of consumption structure, and obvious enhancement of the role of consumption in stimulating economy. The analysis and prediction of final consumption is of great significance to actively play the leading role of new consumption, achieve stable economic growth with quality and efficiency, and improve people’s quality of life. Based on the analysis of the change trend of the final consumption and its structure and the main influencing factors, this paper forecasts the final consumption of China in 2020 by the method of summing sub-items. It is expected that China’s final consumption will maintain a sustained growth trend in 2020 without the COVID-19 out broke, but the growth rate will slow down, with a nominal growth rate of about 5.9% year-on-year. If we considered the impacts of COVID-19, the nominal growth rate will be −3.7%.
