ABSTRACT
The author of the article analyses the problem of determining environmental risk in the context of determining environmental risk (safety) zones. When choosing an environmental risk model to predict the level of interaction between the construction object and the environment, the author considered the features of natural landscapes. Based on the study of the parameters of technogenic impact on natural landscapes, an adjusted matrix of distributions of construction zones and the risk of vulnerability of the natural environment is presented. Modelling using the Monte Carlo method makes it possible to predict the process of technogenesis relative to the natural environment in a confidence interval. The impact of technogenesis on all four components of the environment in the zones under consideration will continue to increase. The quantitative characteristics of possible ecosystem “failures” as a result of anthropogenic intervention were analysed using a point scale.
