ABSTRACT
This work deals with the development of the existing probabilistic approach of oil outflow calculation in the MARPOL regulation to be used for predicting the other consequences of the damaged oil tankers. For this purpose, the probabilistic model is provided for a parametric model of the internal layout of the oil tankers. The model is applied for evaluation of the probability of a series of damage cases for the feasible designed layout according the regulation requirements. These series of damaged scenarios are defined according to the requirement of damage stability calculations. For each designed layout, the stability of the ship is affected due to applying each damage scenario. Consequently, the imposed load is changed by damaged scenarios. In this regard, still water bending moment is investigated as one of the major indications of the imposed load to the ship hull girder. Then, the probability of the damage cases is incorporated into the magnitude and location of the calculated value of the maximum hogging and sagging still water bending moment. The provided prediction model can be used for estimation of the imposed load to the ship hull structure in the preliminary step of ship design in the framework of risk-based design.
