ABSTRACT
Quantifying individual tree growth of economically high-value timber species is important for the simulation and development of forest management options. Long-term permanent plot data provides crucial information of forest stand dynamics that can be used to predict individual tree growth. In this study, we developed individual tree basal area growth models of three high-value timber species: monarch birch (Betula maximowicziana), castor aralia (Kalopanax septemlobus), and Japanese oak (Quercus crispula) in a cool temperate mixed forest in northern Japan using long-term measurement data (1968–2016) collected in permanent plots. Data included species, diameter at breast height, and survival status, and stand management history. We applied linear mixed-effects modelling to predict the individual tree basal area growth as a function of individual tree size, competition, and forest management. Model prediction followed by leave-one-out cross validation revealed a correlation between predicted and observed basal area increments with r values of 0.62, 0.73, and 0.70 and root mean square errors values of 10.44, 7.91, and 11.62 cm2/year for monarch birch, castor aralia, and Japanese oak, respectively. The individual tree growth models developed in this study will provide valuable information for species-specific forest management of economically high-value timber species.
