ABSTRACT
Across the world, researchers are busy developing analytics/procedures/ methods of forecasting to identify the likelihood of getting affected by coronavirus at the individual level as well as for the macro level to formulate national/state policies. The present study is an attempt to forecast the total number of COVID-19 cases across Indian states individually and cumulative for the country so that the resources could be sourced well advance in time to prevent healthcare failure and/or mismanagement of existing resources to minimize the impacts of the pandemic as well as to identify the need of mobilization of required healthcare support to appropriate places vis-à-vis to develop new facilities like isolation, quarantine centers, and medical facilities, etc. Key points are the surge of pandemic across India and to prevent the healthcare disaster. There is a strong need for forecasting number of possible cases which is vital to restrict subsequent spread and fatality. The main objective is to develop a methodology for forecasting the number of possible cases so that future healthcare requirements shall be generated at the state level for the development of a better healthcare system.
Employing autoregressive moving-average models for each state in India based on daily frequency. The impact of the epidemic is not uniform across the nation and estimating one model may generate erogenous results. 20ARIMA model has been estimated, for India and major states of India. It is based on the Cumulative Active Cases (CAC) from April 01, 2020 to September 07, 2020 in a machine learning environment where short-term forecasting was the target to understand and determine new requirements, of the healthcare system and related measures, on daily basis. Although the rate of change in daily active cases is a small fraction of the rate of new cases confirmed daily, most of the states including India are showing stationarity on second order which is a clear sign of a nonlinear sharp upward trend. In such a situation, it seems that India is about to enter the third stage of the epidemic where spread will be maximum, and so the catastrophic conditions. In such circumstances, predictions may be the only way to procure the desired amount of facilities to avoid forthcoming health-related hazards. To avoid healthcare hazards, it is recommended to opt for a system to understand the futuristic need for requisite health and medical infrastructure, both for the short and long run.
