ABSTRACT
This chapter shows the importance of convective scale models or very high resolution models in realistically simulating the localized extreme events caused by the large scale organized systems. The case studies discussed not only illustrate some of the applications of National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Unified Modelling (NCUM) seamless system in forecasting extreme weather events but also attempted to analyze and construct the sequence of events leading to the events. The seamless prediction system is used for all types of weather-related applications and warnings, including tropical cyclones, monsoon depressions, thunderstorms and squall lines, mesoscale convective systems, gusty winds, lightning, fog and air quality. The diagnostic study of the Kerala floods case, fairly well simulated by NCUM using the model analysis, has produced new insights into the mechanism and remote teleconnection of the extreme rainfall over a localized region with the very active south-east Asian Oceanic and Pacific warm pool region.
