ABSTRACT
Earthquakes can occur in one or several periods, and by analyzing the period spectrum and its synthetic probability, the trend of seismic activity in a certain area in the future period can be studied. In this paper, namely, the seismic period spectra and their linear synthetic probability values were calculated in three regions using earthquake data of magnitude https://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> M ≥ 4 3 3 https://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9781003308584/bebb6986-3d8f-445c-9ce0-332068e7a6e9/content/inline-math111_1.tif" xmlns:xlink="https://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/> (all magnitudes are M in the text without special notes) from 1480-2000 and M≥4 since 1970 in Shandong and nearby areas (34–38.5°N, 114–123°E, no further hints below), and a certain time period in each region according to the characteristics of different subregions, The actual seismic prediction tests were conducted for each partition according to the characteristics of each partition. The results show that the method has good results in retrospective verification of moderate to strong earthquakes in Shandong and neighboring areas, except for the earthquake period spectrum of magnitude https://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> M ≥ 4 3 3 https://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9781003308584/bebb6986-3d8f-445c-9ce0-332068e7a6e9/content/inline-math111_2.tif" xmlns:xlink="https://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/> since 1480 in the Yishu zone, which shows no dominant period, and makes a reasonable analysis of seismic activity trends in Shandong based on synthetic probability out-test predictions, there is a possibility of a magnitude 4 earthquake in Shandong and nearby areas in the next year.
