ABSTRACT
The city is the main space to bear carbon emissions, and is an important position to implement the national “double carbon” strategic objectives. At present, there are few empirical studies at the city level on how to scientifically identify the peak stage and influencing factors of cities based on the relationship between total urban carbon emissions and urban economic and energy development. This paper constructs an urban energy planning model based on the interaction of urban economy, energy and environment, and predicts the total carbon emissions of energy industry in Beijing in the future. The prediction results show that the carbon emissions in Beijing will decrease steadily during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and the maximum carbon emissions will not exceed the peak emissions of 160 million tons in 2012, and the carbon emissions will be about 140 million tons in 2025.That is to say, Beijing's carbon emission peak year is 2012, and the “14th Five-Year Plan” period is the carbon peak platform period. Effectively controlling the total energy consumption, vigorously developing local non-fossil energy and increasing the proportion of foreign green electricity are the key measures for Beijing to effectively control carbon emissions.
