ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses the modeling priorities as gene drive mosquito projects advance from the lab to the field. Mathematical modeling has a central role to play in determining the impact that gene drive systems could have, alongside other interventions, toward the goal of malaria elimination. The chapter focuses on CRISPR-based homing gene drive systems, as these currently have the most promise to contribute to the malaria eradication agenda. Good models should satisfy the principle of parsimony and be tailored to the questions they are designed for. In the words of physicist Albert Einstein, “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler,” and in the words of statistician George Box, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” The step to building a mosquito population model is to decompose the mosquito life cycle into distinct life stages. While most models incorporate an aquatic juvenile and terrestrial adult stage, the inclusion of further life-history detail is more variable.
