ABSTRACT
In order to quantitatively evaluate chain accidents in chemical installations, vulnerability and resilience evaluations are introduced on the basis of the domino effect, and a quantitative calculation model is constructed from both the possibility and the consequences. In terms of target vulnerability, a calculation model is established by analyzing the impact indicators of people-equipment. The focus is on the four stages of prevention-preparation-response-recovery to discuss the impact indicators of emergency resilience, and an indicator system with the analytic hierarchy process is constructed. Based on the analysis of the accident scene and the propagation path, the domino effect evaluation model of the explosion accident is established, the TNO model is used to define the risk of the domino consequence of the accident in the installation area, the vulnerability and resilience coefficients are introduced, the accident possibility is corrected, and the personal risk calculation is combined to construct a quantitative calculation Model. The feasibility of the model is verified through examples.
