ABSTRACT
Concentralized distribution logistics of the cruise construction build-in material (CDL-CCBIM) is a complex project involving multi-participation and multi-factor coordination. It is affected by many uncertain factors such as internal link, external environment and cooperative relationship. To improve the risk management level of CDL-CCBIM can help to guarantee the progress and quality requirements of cruise construction. In this paper, A risk assessment index system based on a work breakdown structure-risk breakdown structure (WBS-RBS) matrix was established to deal with the complex risks of concentralized disruption logistics system. A system dynamic (SD) model was constructed to simulate changes in system risk. Based on sensitivity analysis, critical risk factors were determined. Subsequently, analyzed the risk level trend with time and impact of dynamic changes of each risk factor on the risk of concentralized distribution logistics. The results show that the risk level of the CDL-CCBIM is on the rise when no measures are taken. Over time, the risk is transmitted in the direction of increasing energy due to the dynamic evolution among influencing factors, and the plan change has the greatest impact on the risk of CDL-CCBIM.
