ABSTRACT
Urbanisation leads to an increase in the impervious layer due to the increase in population. Over the past few decades, developing countries have faced the adverse effects of this phenomenon, in ecosystems lacking sustainable development. Urbanisation is generally witnessed predominantly in the urban fringes. Thoothukudi city, a sea gateway of Tamil Nadu, has been experiencing urbanisation in recent years. The objective of this work was to develop a prediction model by characterising the trend of sprawl taking place in urban environments of the city. Land use/land cover (LULC) maps were prepared for the years 2009, 2013, and 2017 from LANDSAT series datasets. A maximum likelihood classification algorithm was used for classification and the accuracy was assessed. Land use analysis of Thoothukudi city revealed that the urban area had increased from 16% in 2009 to 39% in 2017, with an overall increase of 23%. The vegetation decreased from 48% in 2009 to 24% in 2017 and, similarly, water bodies decreased from 26% in 2009 to 24% in 2017. The CA-MARKOV model was used to study the trend and to predict the LULC change. The model was validated for the year 2017 and the land use was predicted for the year 2021. The predicted result showed that the urban area would increase from 16% in 2009 to 46% in 2021 due to rapid urbanisation in the fringes of the city. The results obtained provide urban planners and decision-makers with important spatial information for formulating future development strategies that could control or minimise negative impacts on the urban environment.
