ABSTRACT
As an emergency, a subway station fire accident has the characteristics of fast propagation, uncertainty, and dynamic. To deal with subway station fire accidents more scientifically and effectively, based on the key scenario states in the process of accident evolution and their corresponding disaster-pregnant environment, emergency activities, disposal objectives, and other elements, the dynamic Bayesian scenario evolution model of subway station fire accidents was constructed. The key factor nodes in the network were selected by the sensitivity analysis of the target scenarios’ accident state, and the variation laws of related factors were analyzed by numerical simulation. The results show that the key point of reducing casualties and losses in subway station fire accidents is to prevent the emergence of initial disaster factors and take timely and effective emergency measures. Fire products, as a key element, affect the evacuation of personnel and secondary disasters and need to be judged its temporal and spatial evolution behavior. Simulation can help to master the propagation law of smoke and then carry out targeted prevention and control of the key scenario. The research results can provide a reference for the emergency treatment of subway station fires.
