ABSTRACT
To improve the quantification accuracy of epistemic uncertainty of corrosion distribution parameters, this paper proposes a double-loop dynamic prediction method for the remaining life of corroded RC bridges, that is, the outer layer uses the Bayesian p-box method, and the inner layer uses JC method. Based on the above method, the remaining life of RC bridges under different data capacities and spatial variability can be calculated. Results show that the remaining life of bridges reduces by 0.43% and 0.72% respectively by considering spatial variability and increasing observation data. The proposed prediction method can consider epistemic uncertainty, target reliability, different data volumes and local corrosion to realize the interval dynamic prediction of the remaining life of corroded RC bridges.
