ABSTRACT
The study proposes a method for predicting ship positions in a short period to evaluate collision risk. It suggests developing a global database for simulating ship manoeuvrability using a 6-DOF manoeuvring model and nonlinear fitting methods. The simulation results are described by the concept of a ship manoeuvring envelope, which refers to the range of speeds and water areas within which a ship can safely manoeuvre. The proposed model classifies ships based on their parameters, such as ship type, size, and speed. Then, it uses Mathematical Model for Manoeuvring Ship Motion (MMG) to predict the ship’s positions when taking different actions and uses nonlinear fitting to obtain the ship manoeuvring envelope. The model is tested by simulating 20 ships with different manoeuvring abilities, and the differences among them are compared and discussed to analyse the influence of different ship parameters on ship motion performance. The study shows that the developed database allows for the quick short-term prediction of ship position, which can be used as a reference for ship collision avoidance. The proposed method can provide valuable information for maritime traffic management and improve the safety of marine transportation.
