ABSTRACT
Coronavirus infections are not going to be obsolete but will remain a part of life in the coming years in the form of different waves. These waves exhibit special effects on human lives with varying degrees of freedom. With this in context, a statistical model has been developed to predict the number of cases in July. This wave is known as the fourth wave of COVID-19 infections. This is achieved by conducting an extensive statistical analysis of the confirmed, active, recovered and death cases for the period of five months, that is from January 2022 to June 2022. Detailed analysis of data enables us to understand inter- and intra-relationships between the cases. The modelling and prediction of the confirmed, active, and recovered cases will provide information to the human community at large and in a way, it can be prevented. Therefore, an effort has been made in this chapter for all India levels to model and predict these cases using a new artificial neural network (ANN) model with the help of a backpropagation algorithm. In this network, the variability between the confirmed, active and recovered cases has been incorporated along with the intra-variability of each case. Data have been divided into training and testing periods and the efficiency in the training and testing periods for active 288cases is found to be more than 95% and 85%, respectively. Further with this efficiency, active cases have been predicted for July 2022.
