ABSTRACT
A National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) project was commissioned to develop a Guideline for Risk Assessment for Bridge Management Systems (BMS), to be used within a BMS to estimate the beneficial effects of bridge risk mitigation and replacement on transportation performance, as a part of BMS methods for project utility and benefit/cost analysis. The Guideline describes methods for developing service disruption scenarios, and then estimating the likelihood and consequences of these scenarios. Likelihood probability models are provided for 16 hazards including earthquake, landslide, storm surge, high wind, flood, scour, wildfire, temperature extremes, permafrost instability, overload, over-height collision, truck collision, vessel collision, sabotage, advanced deterioration, and fatigue. These models are based on published research gathered from a wide variety of sources, and consistent with the AASHTO Guide for User and NonUser Benefit Analysis for Highways (the “Red Book”).
