ABSTRACT
The randomness and uncertainty of bridge reliability assessment can be reduced by using all kinds of inspection and monitoring information. Bayesian probabilistic methodology can integrate all kinds of information into the reliability evaluation model, and is widely used in the suspender reliability evaluation. In this paper, a Bayesian updating method applicable to engineering structure is studied, and the proposed method can well combine the engineering measurement data with the prior probability distribution model, and get the updated posterior distribution. And then take a string-cable arch bridge in china as an example, through the inspection and monitoring data of the bridge suspender, the posterior distribution of resistance model of the bridge suspender is obtained using Bayesian method. On this basis, the suspender reliabilities of the bridge are updated.
In the 30th year after the bridge entering the operation stage, the suspender corrosion detection is done for 30 times. Then posterior distribution parameters of the suspender corrosion rate a can be obtained according to the formula derivated.
By using the JC Method, the component reliability is obtained in the 20th year and in the 40th year respectively, as is shown in the table 2. The suspender corrosion rate distribution model updating.
Statistical Parameter
Statistical Objects
Mean
Standard Deviation
Sample Number
Test Sample
0.152
0.0866
30
Prior Distribution
0.1025
0.0654
100
Posterior Distribution
0.115
0.0683
–
The suspender corrosion rate distribution model update. https://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9781315207681/cd556cd4-4dcf-4efe-8e29-56fc67b8bfbd/content/fig89_1.tif"/> The suspender reliability before and after resistance model updating.The Suspender Reliability
Time
Before Updating
After Updating
The 20th Year
2.78
2.7
The 40th Year
2.72
2.39
