ABSTRACT
This paper proposes a probabilistic framework for cyclone damage assessment to residential constructions, accounting for the potential effects of time-variant cyclone intensity and time-variant cyclone frequency as a result of climate change. The framework includes a non-stationary Poisson process of cyclone occurrence, a failure rate function of cyclone damage, and explicit formulas for evaluating the mean and variance of annual cyclone damage. The framework is demonstrated through a case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida. The “current” probabilistic characteristics of the cyclone actions in this region are obtained by examining historical cyclone records. The effect of non-stationarity in cyclone actions on cyclone damage is investigated using the developed framework.
