ABSTRACT
The prevailing model of development of urban areas is increasingly oriented to a territorial isotropy, notwithstanding the evidences of a considerable literature. This is due to the absence of mathematical models able to translate this awareness into appropriate financial models. Nowadays a city no longer exists as mere physical built place, but as a dematerialized “cloud” of flows: people, goods, information. The vicious circle is all here: the car has allowed the urban sprawl; mass transit does not allow the widespread use of a city. This is the time of urban sustainability. If each urban element (home-work-facilities) is framed dynamically within the daily circadian rhythm that connects them, it will be possible to develop a sustainable solution that is not partialized on a specific sector. A balanced city produces social wealth: that turns into a financial one because it can be measured. The paper presents a methodology that combines the most modern epidemiological knowledge and the energy aspects of mobility. The Enhanced Financial Analysis (EFA) approach considers the Public authority as investor and manager of a planned infrastructure. Revenues come from fare and savings on current health expenditure. The model explores the morbidity of some peculiar diseases of which there is an identified cause-and-effect pollution (direct and indirect) and air quality. The avoided health expenditure is measured by health services that will not be paid out in the medium and long term compared with the do-nothing scenario. EFA allows introjecting some aspects that usually are relegated to the economic analysis, but are part of the current spending of the funder. This realizes a comprehensive financial analysis of the possible alternative technologies for a mass transit corridor, correcting the bias that may arise on the electrical transport—even on the rail transport—compared with apparently less expensive choices.
